AI Success Rate on Online Freelance Work Surges from 2.5% to 16.1% in 8 Months — CAIS Remote Labor Index

事件摘要

The Remote Labor Index shows AI systems jumping from 2.5% to 16.1% success on economically valuable online tasks in under 8 months. Fable 5 leads at 16.1%, Opus 4.8 at 8.3%.

影响评估

• Economic Disruption -2 · Medium-term

  RLI trajectory (2.5% → 16.1% in 8 months) suggests economically significant labor automation is accelerating. If trend continues, significant impact on online freelance market and broader knowledge work within 1-3 years.

  Affected Groups: online freelancers, knowledge workers, employers, policymakers

• Paradigm Shift +2 · Medium-term

  Provides the first concrete, repeatable measurement of AI's growing economic capability. Shifts the AI-and-employment debate from theoretical speculation to data-driven assessment.

  Affected Groups: economists, policymakers, AI researchers, general public

• Capability Leap +2 · Medium-term

  Demonstrates that AI systems can now complete complex, multi-step, domain-specific freelance projects end-to-end. The capability extends well beyond text generation to encompass specialized professional work.

  Affected Groups: AI developers, professional services, creative industries

共识度与来源

• 1
  A Significant Increase in Digital Labor Automation

  URL: https://www.safe.ai/work/rli

  Remote Labor Index update: 2.5% to 16.1%, frontier more than quadrupled in under eight months.

  Reference Evidence Citation logged Live source
• 2
  Import AI 464: Fables writes GPU kernels; AI automation; and analog computation

  URL: https://importai.substack.com/p/import-ai-464-fables-writes-gpu-kernels

  A significant increase in digital labor automation detected.

  Reference Evidence Citation logged Live source